It is all in the math…
At this point, by most accounts, Romney will secure the Republican nomination by continuing to win a plurality and occasional majority of votes in the remaining contents. Santorum, on the other hand, needs to win two-thirds and Gingrich nearly three-quarters of the remaining delegates.
MSM would have you believe that Saturday was Santorum’s day but a casual glance suggests otherwise with 80% of the contests going to Romney.
Specifically, Romney won Guam unanimously, Mariana Islands with 87% of the vote, a plurality in Wyoming with 16% lead over Santorum, and a plurality in the Virgin Islands.
The net result of Saturday: 40 delegates to Romney, 36 to Santorum, and one each to Paul and Gingrich.
Yesterday did not help Santorum. Sure, he squeaked out a narrow a 51% majority win in Kansas, but consider those losses (which are worth repeating):
- Guam voted unanimously for Romney for 9 delegates (1)
- Mariana Islands voted 87% to Romney for 9 delegates (3)
- U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Croix and St. Thomas gave eight delegates to Romney and one to Paul (2)
- Wyoming, gave Romney a 16% margin over Santorum to win plurality and 7 of 12 delegates (4)
Gingrich and Paul? Virtual no shows in Saturday’s results.
Gingrich’s Southern Strategy has already failed spectacularly. While he won Georgia with a plurality, he completely lost Virginia with 0% of the vote and placed a dismal third in both Tennessee and Oklahoma. Rasmussen Tracking currently shows Gingrich leading by 1% in Alabama but, surprisingly, Romney is up by 8% in Alabama with Gingrich down in third place(5, 6).
At best Gingrich joins Paul as a quixotic presence through the remainder of the primaries. And, personally speaking, Paul has far more to offer in this role than Gingrich.
Is it over for Santorum as well? How does Santorum win 65% of the remaining delegates when, despite media spin, he is failing to even win a plurality, much less a majority at the end of each day’s round of contests.
And, do not forget the 150 automatic delegates (otherwise known as super delegates) (7). They, too, are trending for Romney and, in my opinion, to avoid a brokered convention, will throw their lot behind him if that gives him the nomination.
So, just looking at the math, is it over or how do either Santorum or Gingrich recover?